Which Pokémon Booster Packs Are Actually Worth Opening? (April 2025 Data)

How This Data is Calculated

To figure out which packs offer the best return, I use price data and pull rates directly from TCGPlayer. This information is then processed through a custom database to determine the expected value from cracking a pack. The 'return rate' you see is the percentage of a pack's cost you can expect to get back in card value. It's important to remember that this is an average over a large number of packs, not a guarantee for any single pack.

The Bottom of the Barrel: Sets to Avoid

Before we get to the top performers, let's cover the sets that are currently the worst to open. Based on the data, you should probably stay away from these three right now:

• Obsidian Flames: 31.6% return rate
• Surging Sparks: 37.3% return rate
• Twilight Masquerade: 38.5% return rate

Opening these will, on average, lose you the most money per pack compared to other sets in the Scarlet & Violet era.

Kicking Off the Top 7 Countdown

#7: Paradox Rift

Starting our list is Paradox Rift with a return rate of 43.2%. With an average pack price of $5.73, you can expect an average loss of $3.26 per pack. It's a significant loss, but still better than many other options.

#6: Paldea Evolved

Next up is Paldea Evolved, which offers a slightly better return at 44.2%. The average booster cost is higher at $6.66, which translates to a loss of $3.72 per pack.

#5: Temporal Forces

At number five, we have Temporal Forces. It has a 44.6% return rate. With a pack cost of $5.43, the average loss is around $3.00 per pack. As you can see, these first few sets are all clustered very closely together in terms of value.

A Quick Look at Recent Market Shifts

The sealed product market has cooled down over the past two months. After a period of rapid growth where sets saw price increases of 20-40%, the market has slowed. About half of the sets are now flat, while the other half have dropped by 10-20%. The steepest decline was Surging Sparks, which fell 20%. Other sets like Stella Crown, Shrouded Fable, 151, and Obsidian Flames also dropped by about 10%.

This is a normal correction after months of fast growth. Interestingly, individual booster pack prices are still seeing modest increases, mostly in the 5-15% range. For older 2023 sets like Obsidian Flames, Paldea Evolved, and the base Scarlet & Violet set, pack prices have even increased by 25-30%.

Crossing the 50% Return Mark

#4: Prismatic Evolutions

Prismatic Evolutions is the first set on our list to break the 50% barrier, with an expected return of 51%. While it’s good to get more than half your money back in value, the pack cost is a hefty $13.28. This results in the highest average loss on our list at $6.51 per pack, showing that a high return rate doesn't always mean a smaller loss.

The Top 3: Where Your Money Goes Furthest

#3: 151

The fan-favorite 151 set comes in at third place. It boasts a solid 54% pull value return. However, with a high booster price of $10.60, you're still looking at an average loss of $4.87 per pack. The amazing illustration rares make it a fun set to open, regardless of the math.

#2: Journey Together

The newest set, Journey Together, takes second place with a 54.6% return rate. The average pack price is a more reasonable $6.60, putting the average loss at about $3.00 per pack, on par with Temporal Forces but with a higher potential upside from pulls.

#1: Shrouded Fable ('Schwable')

The best pack to open right now is Shrouded Fable (referred to as 'Schwable' in the data analysis). Pulling from this set gives you back an average of 59.8% of your money. With a booster pack price of $5.69, you're losing about $2.29 per pack on average. While still a loss, it's clearly the best return you can get in the current Scarlet & Violet market.

The Main Takeaway for Sellers

The data is clear: on average, you will lose money opening any current Pokémon TCG booster pack. Even the top-performing set, Shrouded Fable, results in a net loss. Cracking packs for profit is not a viable business strategy. The purpose of this data is to help you make more informed decisions, whether you're opening packs for fun, for singles to grade, or to complete a master set. Knowing the numbers helps you understand exactly what you're getting into.