Is the Pokémon TCG Market Actually Crashing? Let's Look at the Real Data

Overall Scarlet & Violet Set Value Trends

To get a clear picture, we can look at the total value of complete Scarlet & Violet sets, tracked from November of last year to May of this year. This data excludes outlier sets like Prismatic Evolutions, which would skew the numbers, to give us a more accurate view of the broader market.

The general trend shows a steep rise in value for most sets from November up to a peak around February and March. For example, some sets saw increases of over 30% in that timeframe. After this peak, most sets entered a period of stagnation or slight decline heading into April.

Understanding the Recent 'Correction'

The real concern for many sellers is the most recent data. In the last three weeks, we've seen a more noticeable dip. Some sets have decreased by 3-4%, while others have dropped as much as 10% in that short period.

However, it's important to keep this in perspective. For nearly every set, current values are still higher than they were back in November. What we're seeing is a market correction, not a full-blown crash.

We can definitely say we have kind of a correction but we have not really a huge crash... it's just the usual market correction which is absolutely normal when we take a look on the huge increases on the last months which couldn't be sustainable at all.

How Are Single Cards Performing?

The trend for individual cards often mirrors the overall set performance. Looking at specific cards gives us a more granular view of the same market behavior.

Blastoise ex (Pokémon 151)

This popular card peaked around $80 in March and is now sitting at about $67. While it's a drop, it's still higher than its December value of $63. This is a classic example of a correction, not a value collapse.

Other Recent Illustration Rares

Cards like the Growlithe from Twilight Masquerade and a popular Infernape show the same pattern: a strong run-up into March followed by a small, recent correction. An Eevee promo shows a similar trend, peaking in January and now adjusting, but still holding a value above its December price.

Finding Buying Opportunities in a Correcting Market

A market correction isn't just a time to worry; it can be a time to find good deals if you know where to look. A correcting market can push some cards below their logical value.

Case Study: The Latias Illustration Rare

Take the Latias Illustration Rare as an example. It hit a high of $48 in November, but then quickly declined and has been in a long sideways trend around $30.

This card could be mispriced based on pull rates. The pull rate for a specific Illustration Rare is roughly three times higher than for a specific Special Illustration Rare. If a comparable SIR from the set is valued at $180, the Latias, based on relative rarity, should theoretically be valued closer to $90. Seeing it at $30 suggests it could be a solid pickup for sellers who believe in the card's appeal and are willing to wait for the market to potentially re-evaluate it.

The Verdict: Correction, Not a Crash

Based on six months of data, the Pokémon TCG market is not experiencing a full-blown crash. We're seeing a normal and expected correction after a period of unsustainable growth.

Most assets, both sealed sets and single cards, are still up when you zoom out and look at the six-month picture. The key is to monitor whether this corrective trend continues, deepens, or reverses.

Your Strategy as a Seller

The main takeaway is to stay calm and make decisions based on data, not on hype. Here's a practical approach:

• Avoid panic selling. Review your inventory and compare current prices to their values from 3-6 months ago to get a clearer picture of your position.
• Look for opportunities. A down market is a buyer's market. Keep an eye out for cards that may have been overly corrected or seem undervalued based on their fundamentals.
• Stay data-driven. The best defense against market volatility is good information. Track your own sales and watch broad market trends to inform your buying and selling decisions.