Analyzing 5 Pokémon Cards That Are Good Buys After Recent Price Declines

The Strategy: Buying After the Hype

A common pattern for new Pokémon TCG sets is a price spike on release, followed by a decline as more packs are opened and supply hits the market. For sellers and collectors, this cool-down period can be the best time to buy. The key is to find cards that have stabilized at a lower price point but still have strong long-term potential due to artwork, popularity, or rarity.

1. Groudon (Illustration Rare) from Paradox Rift

The top chase card from Paradox Rift, this Groudon features a stunning artwork that many collectors love. A few months ago, this card was around $100. It has since settled to a price of about $75.

The price has been relatively stable for the last few weeks, suggesting it may have found a floor. For a set's main chase card, $75 is a reasonable price, especially for a popular legendary like Groudon. If you're looking to hold for the long run, this could be a solid entry point.

2. Charizard ex (Hyper Rare) from Obsidian Flames

This gold Charizard ex card from Obsidian Flames is another example of a card that has become more affordable. After being around $25, its price has come back down to the $20 range, similar to what it was when the set was first released.

When you consider the pull rates, this price seems even more attractive. The pull rate for this specific Hyper Rare is roughly 1 in 216 packs. Given the popularity of Charizard, getting a card this rare for around $20 is a good opportunity to add a key piece to a collection or inventory.

Analyzing Pull Rates vs. Price

A key part of evaluating a card's value is comparing its market price to its pull rate. A low price doesn't mean much if the card is incredibly common. Conversely, a card that is statistically very difficult to pull can be undervalued if its market price hasn't caught up to its scarcity.

If we just take the pull weights and compare it to the price, I think this is also then a good price to complete your collection.

3. Pikachu (Illustration Rare) from Surging Sparks

Cards from the Surging Sparks set have seen significant price drops recently, which is typical for a set a few months post-release. This Pikachu Illustration Rare is a prime example. In December 2023, it was selling for around $150. Now, you can find it for about $70.

What makes this price drop particularly interesting is the card's rarity. The pull rate for this specific Pikachu is a staggering 1 in 1,127 packs. That makes it significantly rarer than the Obsidian Flames Charizard ex, yet its price is not proportionally higher.

For a Pokémon as popular as Pikachu, and with an artwork many find appealing, this disconnect between rarity and price suggests it could be undervalued. Even if the price dips a little further, its extreme scarcity provides a strong foundation for long-term value.

4. Another Surging Sparks Special Illustration Rare

Following the trend in the Surging Sparks set, another Special Illustration Rare has also seen its price come down and begin to stabilize. The artwork is a standout, making it a card many collectors are watching.

Like the other cards on this list, the price has found a level where it's no longer dropping sharply. This stabilization could signal that the market is finding a consensus on its value, making it a candidate for a buy before it potentially trends upward again.

5. Alolan Exeggutor (Special Illustration Rare) from Surging Sparks

The final card is the Alolan Exeggutor Special Illustration Rare, also from Surging Sparks. It features a unique and well-loved artwork. Its price trajectory mirrors the other cards from the set we've discussed.

After a significant drop in the months following release, the price has leveled off. As a Special Illustration Rare, it's a difficult card to pull, and its current stability suggests it may be a good time to acquire it before any potential rebound.

Takeaway: Timing the Market

All five of these cards present a similar scenario: a popular, rare card that has become significantly cheaper than its peak price. The prices appear to have bottomed out, or at least stabilized for now.

Of course, there's no guarantee they won't go lower. The decision to buy now is a calculated one. You might wait a bit longer, but you also risk the price starting to climb again, leaving you wishing you had bought sooner. The key is to evaluate the card's fundamentals—its artwork, the Pokémon's popularity, and its pull rate—against its current market price.