Is the Pokémon TCG Market Actually Crashing? Let's Look at the Real Data

Q: Is the Pokémon card market crashing in 2025?

Based on data from the last six months, the market isn't experiencing a crash but rather a normal correction. Most Scarlet & Violet sets saw a significant rise in value from November 2024 through February/March 2025. For example, some sets increased by as much as 34%. Since then, there's been a period of stagnation and a slight decline into April 2025, with some sets dropping around 10% in recent weeks. However, most sets are still valued higher now than they were in November. This pattern suggests a cooling-off period after months of unsustainable growth, not a full-blown market collapse.

Q: How have recent Pokémon single card prices been trending?

The trend for single cards largely mirrors the sealed set market: a correction after a recent peak, not a crash. For instance, the Blastoise ex from the 151 set peaked around $80 in March 2025 and has since corrected to about $67. This is still higher than its December 2024 value of $63. Similarly, illustration rares like Growlithe from Twilight Masquerade and an Infernape card saw steep price increases up to March, followed by a small correction. This pattern is consistent across many cards—they are coming down from recent highs but often remain above their values from late last year.

Q: What is a good Pokémon card to buy during the current market correction?

The Lady Yoss illustration rare is a potential buying opportunity right now. This card hit a peak of $48 in November 2024, but after a sharp decline, it has been trading sideways and is currently sitting around $30. The card appears to be mispriced when you consider its pull rate. The pull rate for a specific illustration rare is roughly three times higher than for a special illustration rare from the same set. If a comparable special illustration rare is valued at $180, a simple pull rate calculation suggests the Lady Yoss should be valued closer to $90. This discrepancy makes it a potential buy.

Q: What is the general value trend for Scarlet & Violet sets over the past 6 months?

The general trend for most Scarlet & Violet sets from November 2024 to May 2025 has been a significant increase in value followed by a recent, smaller correction. Most sets saw their values climb steadily from November until February or March 2025. A set like Shorted Fable, for example, increased 34% during this period. After this peak, values either stagnated or began a slight decline of around 10% into April. Newer sets like Surging Sparks show a steeper initial decline after release, which is a typical pattern. Despite the recent dip, the values for most sets are still higher than they were six months ago.

There's a lot of talk about a Pokémon market crash. Instead of listening to the hype, let's look at the hard facts by analyzing the last six months of sales data for Scarlet & Violet sets and key single cards.

Von NeoSatoshi

Aktualisiert June 1, 2026

TL;DR

Quick answers

The core takeaways from this video, answered fast.

Is the Pokémon card market crashing in 2025?

How have recent Pokémon single card prices been trending?

What is a good Pokémon card to buy during the current market correction?

What is the general value trend for Scarlet & Violet sets over the past 6 months?

Overall Scarlet & Violet Set Value Trends

To get a clear picture, we can look at the total value of complete Scarlet & Violet sets, tracked from November of last year to May of this year. This data excludes outlier sets like Prismatic Evolutions, which would skew the numbers, to give us a more accurate view of the broader market.

The general trend shows a steep rise in value for most sets from November up to a peak around February and March. For example, some sets saw increases of over 30% in that timeframe. After this peak, most sets entered a period of stagnation or slight decline heading into April.

Understanding the Recent 'Correction'

The real concern for many sellers is the most recent data. In the last three weeks, we've seen a more noticeable dip. Some sets have decreased by 3-4%, while others have dropped as much as 10% in that short period.

However, it's important to keep this in perspective. For nearly every set, current values are still higher than they were back in November. What we're seeing is a market correction, not a full-blown crash.

We can definitely say we have kind of a correction but we have not really a huge crash... it's just the usual market correction which is absolutely normal when we take a look on the huge increases on the last months which couldn't be sustainable at all.

How Are Single Cards Performing?

The trend for individual cards often mirrors the overall set performance. Looking at specific cards gives us a more granular view of the same market behavior.

Blastoise ex (Pokémon 151)

This popular card peaked around $80 in March and is now sitting at about $67. While it's a drop, it's still higher than its December value of $63. This is a classic example of a correction, not a value collapse.

Other Recent Illustration Rares

Cards like the Growlithe from Twilight Masquerade and a popular Infernape show the same pattern: a strong run-up into March followed by a small, recent correction. An Eevee promo shows a similar trend, peaking in January and now adjusting, but still holding a value above its December price.

Scan & List Faster

Tired of manual data entry? Use the NeoSatoshi scanner to instantly identify cards and get pricing data, so you can list your inventory more efficiently.

Scan & List Faster

Finding Buying Opportunities in a Correcting Market

A market correction isn't just a time to worry; it can be a time to find good deals if you know where to look. A correcting market can push some cards below their logical value.

Case Study: The Latias Illustration Rare

Take the Latias Illustration Rare as an example. It hit a high of $48 in November, but then quickly declined and has been in a long sideways trend around $30.

This card could be mispriced based on pull rates. The pull rate for a specific Illustration Rare is roughly three times higher than for a specific Special Illustration Rare. If a comparable SIR from the set is valued at $180, the Latias, based on relative rarity, should theoretically be valued closer to $90. Seeing it at $30 suggests it could be a solid pickup for sellers who believe in the card's appeal and are willing to wait for the market to potentially re-evaluate it.

The Verdict: Correction, Not a Crash

Based on six months of data, the Pokémon TCG market is not experiencing a full-blown crash. We're seeing a normal and expected correction after a period of unsustainable growth.

Most assets, both sealed sets and single cards, are still up when you zoom out and look at the six-month picture. The key is to monitor whether this corrective trend continues, deepens, or reverses.

Your Strategy as a Seller

The main takeaway is to stay calm and make decisions based on data, not on hype. Here's a practical approach:

Avoid panic selling. Review your inventory and compare current prices to their values from 3-6 months ago to get a clearer picture of your position.
Look for opportunities. A down market is a buyer's market. Keep an eye out for cards that may have been overly corrected or seem undervalued based on their fundamentals.
Stay data-driven. The best defense against market volatility is good information. Track your own sales and watch broad market trends to inform your buying and selling decisions.

Analyze Your Sales Data

Stop guessing and start knowing. NeoSatoshi helps you track your sales, profits, and inventory value over time so you can spot trends in your own business.

Mehr erfahren Kostenlos starten